Wu Berlin: Machine tools "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" will enter the tackling stage
2010 is the closing year of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" and 2011 is the start-up year of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". The development of the machine tool industry is in such a critical period. In 2010, the machine tool industry achieved gratifying results. First, from the perspective of development scale, the machine tool industry achieved steady and rapid development in 2010.
From January to November, the industry completed a total industrial output value of 493.4 billion yuan, which is expected to be 545 billion yuan for the whole year, an increase of 40.5% over the same period last year, and an increase of more than three times compared to 165.6 billion in the early period of the 11th Five-Year Plan; In November, the sales revenue was 476.26 billion yuan, and the whole year is expected to reach more than 530 billion yuan, an increase of about 40% over the same period last year; from January to November, the sales value rate of output reached 97.4%, a slight increase from the same period last year; The industry-wide profit was 31.05 billion yuan, and the annual sales profit margin is expected to reach 6.5% to 6.6%, which is also the best level in history.
Second, there has been significant progress in technological innovation and product structure adjustment.
From January to November, the industry produced 680,000 metal cutting machine tools, an increase of 32% over the same period last year, of which 200,000 were CNC machine tools, an increase of 67.9% over the same period last year. It can be seen that both the output value and the numerical control rate have improved a lot.
Third, great progress has been made in industrial restructuring.
Breakthroughs in the field of numerical control systems and functional components, which have always been shortcomings in the industry. In recent years, the country has paid more and more attention to the development of these two areas. In the past, the mainframe industry has always been said to be large but not strong. It is neither big nor strong. Now, the numerical control system and functional components industry has greatly improved in scale in the past two years. The sales revenue and output value of several major CNC system and functional component companies in the industry have achieved substantial growth. Basic Can keep up with the OEM.
But at the same time, we must also see that there are many gaps in the industry.
The first gap is reflected in the insufficient industrialization of domestic mid-to-high-end CNC machine tools and the lack of competitiveness in the product market.
From January to November, China's imported machine tool products amounted to US $ 13.98 billion, a record high, which was 20% higher than in 2008 before the financial crisis. Among them, the total import of metal processing machine tools was US $ 8.3 billion, an increase of 57% over the same period of last year, while the domestic metal processing machine tools increased by only 34%. The comparison of the two figures shows that from January to November, the domestic market share of domestic metalworking machine tools has decreased, and it also shows that the industry's competitiveness in the middle and high-end markets is still weak. In terms of exports, from January to November, the industry exported US $ 6.3 billion of machine tool products, of which only 1.64 billion was exported from metalworking machine tools. It can be seen that the gap between the amount of exports and the amount of imports is still very large, the import and export deficit has increased significantly, reaching 65%, and the export products are mainly low-grade. There are several reasons for the poor market competitiveness of domestic mid-to-high-end CNC machine tools: the product quality is not high, the price is not low, and the manufacturing capacity of mid-to-high-end products is not enough.
Although the industrial restructuring has made progress during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, it has not been fundamentally resolved. The contradiction between the lag in the development of CNC systems and functional components and the rapid development of the industry has become increasingly prominent. In 2010, the import of CNC system and functional component products increased unabated, growing faster than the import of mainframe products. In 2010, FANUC expects sales to increase by 210%, and Siemens expects sales to increase by 60%. It is difficult for domestic CNC system companies to achieve this. It can be seen that the industry has not fundamentally solved this shortcoming.
The level of profitability of the machine tool industry has been hovering at a low level. It is expected that the industry's profit margin will reach more than 6% in 2010. This is already the highest level in history. There is a big difference. For example, Demagee's profit margin is about 15%, and Fanuc is about 25% to 30%. Therefore, from the perspective of business results, the domestic machine tool industry has not shaken off the low level of scale benefits; from the product perspective, there are still problems of hard and soft. Now many domestic enterprises of mid-to-high-end CNC machine tools can also do it. Improved a lot, but the software level can not keep up. For example, the price of domestic five-coordinate linkage blade milling can be sold for two to three million, and the price of such famous brand products in the world sells for 10 million yuan, excluding software, and it costs another 10 million yuan to purchase software.
In many sales, the proportion of domestic companies' revenue from providing software and comprehensive turnkey projects is still small, resulting in a 2010 domestic machine tool market share that fell by a few percentage points from 70.1% in 2009 and is expected to reach 66.7 %. Although the industry has developed rapidly in recent years, it should be seen that competitors have grown faster than us, and demand has grown faster.
